Please read the README file in this repository.

Other analyses

• Binder sandbox (takes a few minutes to load)
• Analyze
• Croatia-Nordics-And-Some
• North_America
• Asia
• South_America
• Africa

Table of Contents

• Analysis of the most affected countries in Europe
• Cross-country comparison over absolute dates
  • Confirmed
  • Dead
  • Daily Dead (7-Day Average)
  • Active
• Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days
  • Confirmed
  • Dead
  • Daily Dead (7-Day Average)
  • Active
• Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis
  • Belgium
  • Italy
  • Spain
  • North Macedonia
  • Bosnia and Herzegovina
  • Slovenia
  • United Kingdom
  • Montenegro
• Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak
  • List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)
  • Austria
  • Andorra
  • Armenia
  • Poland

Analysis of the most affected countries in Europe⮸

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

Belgium⮸

Population $11,589,623$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $608,137$ on 2020-12-13

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{923,740.9}{1 + 10^{-0.014 (t - 256.0)}}\) (asimptote \(923,740.9\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $17,951$ on 2020-12-13

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{11,226.1}{1 + 10^{-0.028 (t - 45.3)}}\) (asimptote \(11,226.1\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $590,186$ on 2020-12-13

Italy⮸

Population $60,461,826$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $1,843,712$ on 2020-12-13

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $64,520$ on 2020-12-13

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{39,136.1}{1 + 10^{-0.023 (t - 53.6)}}\) (asimptote \(39,136.1\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-23 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $686,031$ on 2020-12-13

Spain⮸

Population $46,754,778$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $1,730,575$ on 2020-12-13

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{32,487,019.6}{1 + 10^{-0.006 (t - 504.8)}}\) (asimptote \(32,487,019.6\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $47,624$ on 2020-12-13

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{32,993.3}{1 + 10^{-0.024 (t - 43.0)}}\) (asimptote \(32,993.3\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $1,532,575$ on 2020-12-13

North Macedonia⮸

Population $2,083,374$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $73,638$ on 2020-12-13

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $2,121$ on 2020-12-13

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $22,103$ on 2020-12-13

Bosnia and Herzegovina⮸

Population $3,280,819$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-10 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $101,117$ on 2020-12-13

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,100,044.2}{1 + 10^{-0.008 (t - 399.1)}}\) (asimptote \(1,100,044.2\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $3,336$ on 2020-12-13

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-10 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $32,023$ on 2020-12-13

Slovenia⮸

Population $2,078,938$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $96,314$ on 2020-12-13

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $2,063$ on 2020-12-13

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $20,874$ on 2020-12-13

United Kingdom⮸

Population $67,886,011$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $1,854,490$ on 2020-12-13

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $64,267$ on 2020-12-13

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{45,225.6}{1 + 10^{-0.025 (t - 51.0)}}\) (asimptote \(45,225.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $1,786,210$ on 2020-12-13

Montenegro⮸

Population $628,066$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $41,426$ on 2020-12-13

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{102,442.5}{1 + 10^{-0.011 (t - 285.8)}}\) (asimptote \(102,442.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-23 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $582$ on 2020-12-13

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,392.2}{1 + 10^{-0.010 (t - 279.8)}}\) (asimptote \(1,392.2\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $10,351$ on 2020-12-13

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak⮸

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)⮸

Austria recovered 52%
Andorra recovered 52%
Armenia recovered 50%
Poland recovered 42%
Romania recovered 29%
Malta recovered 16%
Italy recovered 15%
Bulgaria recovered 6%
Ukraine recovered 2%

Austria⮸

Population $9,006,398$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $322,463$ on 2020-12-13

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{891,813.6}{1 + 10^{-0.014 (t - 300.8)}}\) (asimptote \(891,813.6\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $4,473$ on 2020-12-13

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $36,884$ on 2020-12-13

Andorra⮸

Population $77,265$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-02 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $7,338$ on 2020-12-13

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $79$ on 2020-12-13

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{60.1}{1 + 10^{-0.021 (t - 28.5)}}\) (asimptote \(60.1\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-02 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $630$ on 2020-12-13

Armenia⮸

Population $2,963,243$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $148,325$ on 2020-12-13

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-26 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $2,486$ on 2020-12-13

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $20,670$ on 2020-12-13

Poland⮸

Population $37,846,611$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $1,135,676$ on 2020-12-13

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $22,864$ on 2020-12-13

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $253,917$ on 2020-12-13